Facebook用户数量已趋于饱和

Facebook Inc. went public last month on its prospects for growth. But in some key areas, the social networks growth rates are already maturing.凭借着公司未来的快速增长前景，Facebook上个月以求上市。但是在一些关键领域，这家社交网站的快速增长早已开始渐趋饱和状态。

In particular, Facebooks user growth rate in the U.S. is slowing sharply. In April, U.S. unique visitors to the website increased to 158 million, up just 5% from a year earlier, according to research firm comScore Inc.特别是在必须认为的是，Facebook在美国的用户增长速度正在很快上升。据研究公司comScore Inc.的数据，Facebook在美国的用户数量4月份快速增长至1.58亿，这比一年前的水平仅有减少了5%。

That was Facebooks lowest U.S. user growth rate since comScore began tracking the data in 2008 and was down from 24% growth in April 2011 and 89% in April 2010, comScore said.comScore回应，自从该公司2008年跟踪Facebook的数据以来，4月份是Facebook美国用户数增长速度低于的一个月。相比之下，2011年4月的同比增幅为24%，2010年4月为89%。At the same time, the growth rate in the amount of time people spend on the social network -- otherwise known as engagement is also decelerating. In April, Facebook users spent more than six hours a month on the site, up 16% from a year earlier. But that compares with a 23% increase in 2011 and 57% in 2010, comScore found. ReutersFacebook在美国用户数量的快速增长正在急遽上升。

与此同时，人们花上在这家社交网站上的时间虽然还在快速增长，的增长速度也已上升。4月份，Facebook用户平均值每月在该网站上花费的时间为6小时以上，较一年以前的水平提升了6%。不过comScore找到，相比之下，2011年同期的增幅为23%，2010年为57%。In some ways, the slowdown is to be expected. Facebook has already grabbed 71% of all 221 million U.S. Internet users, according to comScore. At the same time, people are on Facebook longer than any other site. The more than six hours a month that people spend on the social network exceeds the over four hours a month they spend on all Google sites including YouTube, and the 3 1/2 hours they spend on Yahoo sites, comScore said.从或许上谈，这些滑行现象几乎在意料之中。

根据comScore的数据，美国2.21亿互联网用户中，早已有71%登记了Facebook。同时，人们在Facebook上花费的时间也比其他网站多。与Facebook每月6小时以上的水平比起，美国人每月花上在还包括YouTube在内所有谷歌网站上的时间为4个小时以上，而花上在雅虎网站上的时间为三个半小时。

With such a dominant presence and so much time already spent on the site, declining growth rates are a natural part of the growth cycle,said comScore analyst Andrew Lipsman.comScore的分析师利普斯曼(Andrew Lipsman)说道，鉴于Facebook早已夺得了绝大多数的互联网用户，并且用户早已在其网站上花费了如此多的时间，增长速度的上升是其快速增长周期中一个必定阶段。Still, the falling rates are significant given that Facebook has framed itself as a growth story to Wall Street.尽管如此，考虑到Facebook早已向华尔街夸下海口，其增长速度的上升依然非同小可。When it went public last month, the Menlo Park, Calif, company commanded a valuation of more than $100 billion, partly because investors expect Facebook to grow at triple-digit and double-digit rates much like Google Inc. did after its 2004 initial public offering of stock. Yet Facebooks shares are off 29% since they priced at $38 ending at $27.10 on the Nasdaq Stock Market at 4 p.m. Friday and the companys market capitalization has sunk to $73.17 billion.这家坐落于加州的公司上个月上市时的估值超过了1,000亿美元以上，其部分原因是投资者预计Facebook将构建三位数或两位数的快速增长，就像谷歌在2004年首次公开发表IPO之后所经历的那样。然而自从以每股38美元的价格公开发行股票以来，Facebook的股价早已暴跌了29%。

上周五，Facebook在纳斯达克市场(Nasdaq Stock Market)的收盘价为每股27.10美元，公司的市值也上升到了731.7亿美元。Indeed, comScores numbers illustrate how little room there is left for Facebook to grow in the U.S., which is the most important and lucrative market for the social networks two revenue-paying constituencies: advertisers and developers. 事实上，comScore的数据指出Facebook在美国早已完全没之后快速增长的空间，而美国市场对于广告客户和程序开发者来说是最重要和最有利可图的市场，广告客户和程序开发商又是Facebook的两个主要收益来源。Approximately 56% of Facebooks 2011 ad revenue of $3.1 billion came from the U.S. alone, according to the companys regulatory filings. The U.S. is a dominant source of revenue for Facebook, said eMarketer analyst Debra Aho Williamson, who estimates that this year the nation will account for 51% of Facebooks revenue.Facebook递交给监管机构的备案文件表明，该公司2011年取得的31亿美元广告收益中，约56%来自美国。eMarketer的分析师威廉姆森(Debra Aho Williamson)说道，美国是Facebook收益的最主要来源。

他估算，Facebook今年的营收中将有51%来自美国。Morningstar analyst Rick Summer said comparing Facebooks growth rates to Googles post-IPO might not be an apt analogy given that Google went public at an earlier stage of the Internets development. Google had the advantage of increases in ad pricing, increases in the number of Internet users and stealing market share from other Web properties, he said. By contrast, he said, Facebook is already a dominant Web platform and theyve got significant Internet penetration today. Ad pricing is clearly going to be where their growth is going to come from.Alison Yin for The Wall Street Journal从或许上谈，这些滑行现象几乎在意料之中。

根据comScore的数据，美国2.21亿互联网用户中，早已有71%登记了Facebook。图为上个月，Facebook加州门洛帕克办公园区中的员工。晨星公司(Morningstar)的分析师萨莫(Rick Summer)说道，拿Facebook的增长率与谷歌上市后的增长率不作对比有可能并不适合，因为谷歌是在互联网发展的较晚阶段展开IPO的。

萨莫说道，谷歌当时享有诸如广告定价不存在下跌空间、互联网用户数量于是以大大快速增长以及可从其它门户网站抢走市场份额等优势。他说道，相比之下，Facebook目前已是一个居于主导地位的互联网平台，它的互联网渗透率早已很高。只有在享有业务快速增长空间的地方，广告定价才有下跌空间。Mr. Summer said he expects Facebook to be able to grow into its valuation over the long term. In the short term, however, he said the slowing user and engagement growth rates as well as slower ad-revenue growth are likely to pressure the stock for another year or two.萨莫说道，他指出长年来看Facebook有能力证明其估值名副其实。

不过他也说道，短期而言，用户数量和用户在网站上停留时间(以及广告收益)的快速增长上升可能会让Facebook的股票再行忍受一到两年的压力。Facebook still has growth sources. The comScore numbers dont take into account overseas markets and the mobile sector, which are categories where Facebook has room to expand. In its regulatory filings, the company has said it is experiencing substantial growth in countries such as India and Brazil, although ad rates in those countries are lower than in the U.S.Facebook仍有增长点。comScore的数据不还包括海外市场和手机网际网路用户方面的情况，而Facebook在这两个领域都有扩展空间。Facebook在提交给监管机构的备案文件中说道，公司在印度和巴西等国的业务于是以很快快速增长，不过这些国家的广告价格要高于美国。

Facebook is still experiencing growth in the use of its site on mobile phones. In March, the company said its monthly mobile usage world-wide rose to 488 million users from 425 million in December.通过手机指定Facebook的人仍在快速增长。Facebook说道，今年3月在全球范围内通过手机指定Facebook的用户从去年12月的4.25亿减至4.88亿。

Facebook acknowledged, however, that its mobile growth hasnt led to an increase in ad revenue because it earns almost no money from mobile ads. Last week, the company introduced new ways for advertisers to buy mobile ads.然而Facebook也否认，移动用户的快速增长并没造就广告收益的快速增长，因为公司从移动广告中完全赚到将近钱。上周，Facebook向广告客户发售了出售移动广告的新方式。It is still unclear whether Facebooks mobile growth is coming at the expense of personal computer usage, said comScores Mr. Lipsman. ComScore began tracking mobile use of Facebook only several months ago, so there are no clear trends in the data.利普斯曼说道，目前尚能不确切Facebook移动用户的快速增长是否是以个人电脑用户的增加为代价的。

ComScore几个月前才开始跟踪Facebook的移动用户数据，所以数据中还看到具体的趋势。Some advertising-agency executives said that Facebooks slowing U.S. user growth rate isnt a concern as long as the company can figure out how to give marketers more opportunities to reach users.一些广告公司低管说道，不用担忧Facebook美国用户增长率的上升，只要该公司能想要办法给广告客户获取更加多认识用户的机会就讫。The story line is less about the users themselves,said Sarah Hofstetter, president of digital ad agency 360i, a unit of Dentsu Inc. Its more about how they monetize their user base.日本电通(Dentsu Inc.)旗下子公司、数字广告公司360i的总裁霍夫施泰特(Sarah Hofstetter)说道，这件事跟用户本身的关系不大，主要在于如何将Facebook的用户基础货币化。Others say that not all activity on Facebook takes place directly on facebook.com. For example, websites and apps let Facebook users sign in with their Facebook identity, so users might be interacting with Facebook even when they arent on the website.有人说道，Facebook上的活动并非都必要再次发生在其网站facebook.com上。

例如，Facebook用户可以用自己的Facebook身份指定其它网站和应用程序，这样即使没指定Facebook网站，他们有可能也在与Facebook展开对话。That can understate the real engagement on Facebook, said Brendan Wallace, co-chief executive of San Francisco-based professional networking site Identified, where users can log in with their Facebook user names and passwords.旧金山职业社交网站Identified的联席首席执行长华莱士(Brendan Wallace)说道，这可能会给用户在Facebook的实际停留时间打个优惠。人们能用自己在Facebook的用户名和密码指定Identified网站。Still, Mr. Wallace said it is important for developers to take note of Facebooks slowing user growth rate.但华莱士也说道，程序开发商不应注意到Facebook用户数增长速度上升这个现象。

Identified, he said, caters primarily to young users, who are a large part of Facebooks audience. But for products that cater to older audiences, Mr. Wallace said Facebook might turn out to be just one of many platforms that developers consider integrating with.他说道，Identified主要顺应年长用户，而这些人是Facebook的主要用户。但他也说道，在研发那些顺应年纪较长用户的产品时，Facebook或许只是程序开发商考虑到与之统合的众多平台中的一个而已。

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